South Africa's January Inflation Eases to 3.5% as Fuel Prices Drop, but Meat Costs Accelerate on Foot-and-Mouth
PRETORIA, 18 February 2026. South Africa's headline consumer price inflation eased to 3.5% year on year in January 2026, down from 3.6% in December 2025, as lower fuel prices reduced transport costs, though meat prices accelerated further amid persistent supply constraints linked to an outbreak...
South Africa's January Inflation Eases to 3.5% as Fuel Prices Drop, but Meat Costs Accelerate on Foot-and-Mouth
PRETORIA, 18 February 2026. South Africa's headline consumer price inflation eased to 3.5% year on year in January 2026, down from 3.6% in December 2025, as lower fuel prices reduced transport costs, though meat prices accelerated further amid persistent supply constraints linked to an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, Statistics South Africa reported on Wednesday.
The monthly rate was unchanged from December at 0.2%. The January reading remained within the South African Reserve Bank's revised 3% plus or minus one percentage-point target band and slightly below the midpoint of the previous 3%-6% range, providing continued comfort to policymakers ahead of the MPC's March meeting.
Transport costs were the primary drag on the January rate, with fuel prices falling 3.7% year on year compared with a 0.6% increase recorded in December. Lower global crude oil prices, which filtered through to the pump over the preceding month, drove the decline. Fuel is one of the most significant transmission channels between global commodity markets and South African consumer prices.
Food inflation remained steady at 4.4% for a third consecutive month, masking significant divergence within the category. Meat prices rose 13.5% year on year, accelerating from December's 12.6%, in a trend attributed to supply-side pressure from a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak that reduced the availability of certain livestock. Milk products remained in deflationary territory. Maize meal continued to exert upward pressure on the food basket, though the rate of increase moderated slightly.
Core inflation, which excludes food, non-alcoholic beverages, fuel, and energy, and which the SARB monitors closely as a measure of underlying price pressures, rose to 3.4% in January from 3.3% in December, reaching its highest level in nearly a year. Economists flagged this increase as a signal to watch, noting that sustained core inflation above 3% could complicate the case for additional rate cuts in the near term despite the benign headline trend.
The January print left the 12-month average for the period February 2025 to January 2026 at approximately 3.3%, consistent with the SARB's forecast and reinforcing the message that South Africa's disinflationary trend remained on track.
Statistics South Africa releases the Consumer Price Index monthly, based on price surveys across approximately 6,600 items in six metropolitan areas.