South Africa's February Inflation Hits Exactly 3%, SARB's New Target, as Fuel Prices Decline Sharply
PRETORIA, 18 March 2026. South Africa's consumer price inflation fell to exactly 3.0% year on year in February 2026, the South African Reserve Bank's new headline inflation target, down from 3.5% in January, as fuel prices dropped sharply and transport costs moderated, Statistics South Africa...
South Africa's February Inflation Hits Exactly 3%, SARB's New Target, as Fuel Prices Decline Sharply
PRETORIA, 18 March 2026. South Africa's consumer price inflation fell to exactly 3.0% year on year in February 2026, the South African Reserve Bank's new headline inflation target, down from 3.5% in January, as fuel prices dropped sharply and transport costs moderated, Statistics South Africa reported on Wednesday.
The February print, slightly below market expectations of 3.1%, was the lowest since June 2025 and marked the first time annual inflation had reached the SARB's new 3% point target since its adoption in November 2025. The monthly rate was 0.4%. Fuel prices declined 10.1% year on year in February, a significant acceleration from January's 3.7% annual decline, reflecting global crude oil price movements in the preceding months.
Transport costs fell 2.1% annually, driven by the fuel component. However, food inflation remained elevated at approximately 4.4%, with meat prices continuing to accelerate to 13.5% year on year as foot-and-mouth disease sustained supply constraints on certain livestock categories. Core inflation, which excludes food, fuel, and energy, was approximately 3.4%, slightly above the headline figure, indicating some underlying price pressure in services and manufactured goods.
Economists noted that the February reading, while welcome, arrived at a moment of emerging external risk. Global oil prices had risen sharply in response to Iran-related geopolitical tensions, and fuel retailers anticipated passing on the impact in the April cycle. Business Day warned that "a spike is likely in April" once higher crude costs and exchange-rate movements worked through to domestic pump prices. The SARB had also cited oil-price risk as a key reason for holding its repo rate unchanged at 6.75% at the January MPC meeting, and the March 26 committee meeting was expected to maintain that pause.
The 3.0% February reading brought the trailing 12-month average inflation to approximately 3.3%, fractionally above the SARB's own forecast for 2026. If sustained, the inflation trajectory would remain consistent with gradual monetary easing later in 2026, though the emerging oil-price shock had complicated near-term projections.
Statistics South Africa releases the Consumer Price Index monthly, approximately six weeks after the reference month.